August 6, 2024
BANGKOK – The Thai elite, through their institutionalized counter-majoritarian mechanisms, have accused us of attempting to overthrow the state. This sweeping charge stems from our proposal to amend Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, hoping to prevent its exploitation as a tool to silence political opponents and instill fear in critics.
On August 7th, the Constitutional Court is set to rule without further investigation or seeking my appearance. A guilty verdict would lead to the dissolution of Thailand’s largest political party and potentially ban me, along with many colleagues, from politics for life.
Yet, while a cursory glance suggests Thai democracy faces a grievous threat, hampering our constituents’ aspirations for a better country, a closer inspection offers glimmers of hope.
Firstly, Thai citizens are increasingly recognizing that political uncertainty breeds economic stagnation, with judicial overreach as the likely culprit. This realization was not as prevalent before the current round of instability. Once one of Asia’s tigers with an economy dubbed “Teflon,” Thailand’s political problems did not significantly affect its economic attractiveness. However, those days are long gone, with Thailand being the worst performer among ASEAN’s six largest economies in the first quarter of 2024. Public disagreements between the embattled Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Thailand over interest rates have dampened economic confidence. Thailand’s growth engines, led by tourism and private consumption, are sluggish; agricultural and industrial production and exports are contracting, while household and corporate debts continue to rise. Our economic problems are structural, attributable to a loss of competitiveness in human capital and a failure to transition from manufacturing to digital technology.
Amid economic hardship, average Thai voters have also been robbed of their political choice through hyper-legalism, while the government faces legal hurdles that leave their fate in limbo. The silver lining is that people are increasingly equating their economic plight with political underhandedness, and rightly so.
Secondly, pressure is now mounting on the ultra-conservatives who have maintained tight control over political and economic life, through largely undemocratic means, and demands for accountability from the powers-that-be are growing. The pattern of party dissolutions has persisted for two decades, with our predecessor, the Future Forward Party, being the latest casualty in 2020. The attempt to dissolve the Move Forward Party is thus not an isolated power play. These consistent and devious efforts by undemocratic elites to maintain power show they are unable to earn it through people’s trust and confidence. Each time, the cost of resorting to political shenanigans to retain power becomes higher. Thai citizens are fed up with the old tricks, but they might not manifest their anger through street battles. Instead, it will be through the ballot boxes. They realize that change via parliament might take longer, but once achieved, it is more enduring. Such a phenomenon is a cause for celebration for all advocates of democracy.
Thirdly, reasonable conservatives are shifting in our favor. Recent polls indicate our popularity ratings stand at almost 50 percent of the electorate. The Move Forward Party (MFP) won 14 million votes in the last election, and our progressive movement is expected to win by an even wider margin in the next elections. The gains are not from new and young voters alone. Some of our most ardent supporters include well-known conservatives formerly labeled as yellow shirts, sharing mutual convictions against corruption and nepotism. With the realignment between the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai Party and the pro-junta parties, more ex-Pheu Thai voters, feeling betrayed, are cheering for us. It’s not uncommon to see former voters of General Prayut, the former prime minister, disillusioned by the realignment, also vowing to vote for MFP.
Elements in the military and the courts are showing eagerness for reform. The military is more transparent in defending its budget allocation against parliamentary representatives. Their reform plans, if implemented, are not significantly different from what my Party envisages. The up-and-coming generation of judges have voiced their disappointment with stretching legal interpretations for political ends at the expense of the rule of law. This convergence, coupled with the urge for change at all echelons of Thai society, augurs well for our democratic development.
Fourthly, citizens have been politically awakened and feel more empowered than ever. Average voters, including the Precariat as a political class, have been instrumental in pushing for change. Nicknamed the “land of compromises,” Thailand desperately needs a new political consensus. Past compromises — including sacrificing indigenous people’s land rights to appease real estate conglomerates, reducing LGBTQ rights to economic engines, allowing corporate greed to turn Thailand into one of the world’s most unequal countries — no longer have a place in Thai politics. The result of last year’s elections, where politicians with autocratic tendencies suffered heavy losses, stands as testament to this fact.
The national political discourse has become more progressive, even without us at the helm of the government. As part of the new compromise, Thai parliament passed a marriage equality law with bipartisan support, becoming the first country in ASEAN to recognize same-sex marriage. Legislation on the rights of ethnic and indigenous groups and labor rights and welfare have passed their first readings. These bills aim to cultivate a society that respects and protects ethnic and indigenous rights while furthering workers’ rights, including longer parental leave. Even regarding Myanmar-related policy, our constituents have pushed us to do more through our legislative authority. Thai citizens’ uncompromising advocacy for their own rights and those of individuals seeking refuge in our country enabled us to turn their collective will into tangible progress. I remain hopeful for my country, regardless of next month’s political developments.
At face value, Thailand will fall significantly short on the democratic scale if the MFP’s expected dissolution and political bans come to pass. Any political ploy that disenfranchises and alienates a large number of citizens will come at a steep price, given the political awakening that now reverberates through the country. These catalysts of change offer a glimmer of hope for Thai democracy, even when prospects remain bleak. No matter what happens in August, Thais’ wishes to live secure lives, free from fear and want, will not be determined by a court verdict.