November 8, 2024
TOKYO/SEOUL – Japan’s and South Korea’s then leaders cemented a friendship with Donald Trump during his first presidency that led to breakthroughs in the three countries’ Indo-Pacific and North Korea policies.
But that is history.
On Nov 7, the East Asian countries’ current leaders separately spoke with the President-elect, recognising the need to act quickly to build rapport to reinforce their alliance with the US and, by extension, anchor Washington’s interests in the region, where an assertive China and increasingly belligerent North Korea threaten stability.
Both Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol had not been in power during Trump’s mercurial first term in office from 2017 to 2021.
Trump’s transactional approach to security, trade and foreign policy, however, remains fresh in recent bureaucratic memory and will shape Japan’s and South Korea’s tentative approach to Trump’s second term.
While their predecessors had been successful in winning over the US President, earning them the moniker “Trump whisperer”, the ability of Mr Ishiba and Mr Yoon to do so is less certain.
Trump was inspired by the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to roll out the strategy of a free and open Indo-Pacific, while former South Korean president Moon Jae-in was a key player behind the US-North Korea summits.
This time round, a more isolationist Trump could pressure both countries to do significantly more on security if they do not offer any concessions in return for maintaining US presence in their countries, say analysts.
Whether the two East Asian neighbours can adequately respond is the question, given that both Mr Ishiba and Mr Yoon will have far fewer bargaining chips if they are perceived by Trump as “weak leaders” who are on wobbly political ground at home, given Trump’s apparent preference for strongmen.
Mr Ishiba quickly sought to build rapport in a five-minute phone call, where he said: “I respect that your appeal to ‘Make America Great Again’ has resonated with so many American people.”
He later told reporters: “It was the first time we’ve spoken, but I got the impression that he was friendly and someone I can speak honestly with, rather than having to sugarcoat my words.”
Mr Ishiba wants to take a leaf from Mr Abe, who ripped up diplomatic protocol to visit Trump in 2016 before his inauguration, and Japanese officials are trying to schedule a meeting later in November, before the January investiture.
South Korea’s Mr Yoon, who spoke for 10 minutes with Trump, hopes to meet him “as soon as possible” to discuss North Korea’s burgeoning nuclear capabilities. Trump expressed the need to establish a strong US-Korea partnership.
Speaking at a news conference to mark the mid-way mark of his five-year presidency, Mr Yoon said he has been told by a close Trump ally that he would likely have good chemistry with Trump, as both had ascended to presidencies without prior experience in politics.
The two East Asian leaders’ public show of confidence and optimism belies a growing anxiety that Trump may put their countries’ defence spending, the extent of support for US troops they host or trade surpluses with the US in the crosshairs.
On the campaign trail, Trump painted allies like Japan and South Korea as sponging off the US military, and threatened to reduce or even withdraw US presence in their countries. He also threatened a universal 10 per cent tariff on imports from all countries except China, on which he wants to impose a 60 per cent tariff.
“It is really not an opportune time for Japan to have political instability,” said Professor Tosh Minohara, who chairs the Research Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs think-tank.
After an Oct 27 electoral battering, Mr Ishiba is set to form a minority government when the Diet convenes on Nov 11.
Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at US think-tank Hudson Institute, added: “Trump will make very strong demands, but Japan may not be able to reply given Ishiba’s political weakness.”
Japan has already pledged to raise defence spending to 2 per cent of its gross domestic product, and is footing 70 per cent of the costs to host US troops. But experts said it is very much possible that Trump can raise the stakes even higher – for instance, by demanding defence spending at 3 per cent.
In October, Trump said he would make South Korea pay US$10 billion (S$13.2 billion) a year to host the 28,500-strong US Forces Korea, describing the country as a “money machine”.
But on Nov 4, just a day before the US election, South Korea and the current administration of President Joe Biden inked a five-year defence cost-sharing plan to maintain US troops in South Korea, where Seoul would pay 1.52 trillion won (S$1.45 billion) in 2026, up 8.3 per cent from its 2025 contribution.
With the new cost being just a fraction of what Trump is expecting, Dr Troy Stangarone, director of Washington-based think-tank Wilson Centre’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Centre, said Trump will likely seek to renegotiate the deal, even as his administration will want to “emphasise trilateral security cooperation in response to a strengthening North Korea and to manage long-term challenges with China”.
Seoul is also concerned about Trump’s possible reignition of his bromance with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with Trump having commented in July 2024 that he believed Mr Kim missed him.
Dr Lee Seong-hyon, a South Korean visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Asia Centre, said Trump may possibly take the position of recognising North Korea as a nuclear state, and shift talks from denuclearisation towards arms reduction.
“This approach could leave South Korea vulnerable, especially if Trump prioritises a deal that addresses only US security concerns,” he told The Straits Times.
There are also concerns about the impact on South Korean semiconductor companies in the US, though Mr Kim Bong-man, the head of international affairs at the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI), said: “We need to wait and see the specific policies once the new administration term begins.”
The FKI, as one of South Korea’s largest business groupings with major conglomerate members, is already planning meetings for US and South Korean business leaders with US Congress members and think-tanks in December.
Over in Japan, Prof Minohara said Tokyo will need to reinforce its multilateral partnerships with other like-minded countries, including South Korea, both in defence and trade, to mitigate against a more isolationist US.
Ms Asuka Tatebayashi, a senior analyst at Mizuho Bank’s global strategic advisory department, told ST that Trump could withdraw from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) initiative launched by Mr Biden.
The 14-nation IPEF, which includes both Japan and South Korea, comprises four pillars of cooperation in trade, supply chains, clean energy and anti-corruption measures.
This, she said, means Japan will have to take the lead as the largest economy in the framework, just as it did in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact.
“Trump wants to bring manufacturing back to the US, and that is why Japan has to invest more, which we are already doing,” she said.
“That is the baseline, we have to contribute more to the US economy before we can start to negotiate on security.”
But she added: “It should not be this way, we should not be influenced by whichever administration they might pick in the US. Japan needs to have its own strategy and stance to stay strong.”