July 24, 2024
JAKARTA – Pressure is mounting on Southeast Asia’s top diplomats to ensure regional unity at this week’s ASEAN talks in Laos, as analysts say ongoing disputes over rights to the South China Sea require a clear regional approach even as claimants increasingly opt to resolve issues in the troubled waters bilaterally.
Hopes are not high that the talks in Vientiane will result in significant progress on the South China Sea issue, such as a code of conduct (COC) for nations operating in the body of water, but analysts warn that ASEAN must at least refrain from backpedaling on its existing position.
Tensions resulting from China’s sweeping claims to the South China Sea have worsened in recent years amid its rapid rise both regionally and internationally. The strategic sea quickly became a prominent theater of competition between Beijing and Washington.
Diplomatic frictions have also arisen between China and other claimants to the resource-rich sea, including ASEAN members such as Malaysia and the Philippines. The latter joined hands with the United States and experienced a surge of clashes with Chinese vessels in the waters.
The 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM), in which the matter is slated for discussion at length, will come days after Beijing and Manila reached a provisional agreement for rotation and resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine naval ship intentionally grounded on Second Thomas Shoal. The two claimants agreed that there was a need to de-escalate the situation through dialogue and consultation.
To ensure that de-escalation, the Philippine Foreign Ministry reportedly affirmed that both Manila and Beijing would “not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea”.
Despite the seemingly positive developments in the maritime dispute, analysts say only a region-wide approach could sustainably resolve the tensions in the disputed waters and that the onus is still on ASEAN to strengthen its unity and advance ongoing negotiations.
“Ideally, the South China Sea issue must be treated with a regional approach,” said Lina Alexandra, head of the international relations department at Jakarta’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “Any efforts by individual states to deal with China directly won’t go anywhere.”
I Made Andi Arsana, an expert on the South China Sea dispute at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), concurred: “ASEAN members can only have equal standing with China in negotiations if they are united.”
The Indonesian foreign ministry said last week that the bloc, which has faced mounting pressure to step up and prevent the disputes from turning into an open conflict, was aware of the urgent need to advance key negotiations. It also vowed that the AMM, slated to kick off on Thursday, would see in-depth talks on the matter among ASEAN countries and the bloc’s key partners, including the US and China.
Ensuring ASEAN unity when talking with major partners might be a difficult task, as would making progress in negotiations, analysts said, given that each member country had varying degrees of reliance on both major powers.
“I don’t have any expectations that they will produce something significant on the South China Sea,” Andi said. “I do hope, however, that they at least do not backpedal on their previous stance, which is the importance of upholding international law.”
On the sidelines of the three-day meeting, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will meet with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, according to the US State Department, as reported by AFP. They are expected to discuss “the importance of adherence to international law in the South China Sea”.
Aside from the South China Sea, the Myanmar conflict, sparked by a military coup in 2021, is on the agenda in Vientiane.
ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has led diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis but has made little progress. The junta has been excluded from the bloc’s top-level meetings over its refusal to negotiate with its opponents and its brutal crackdown on dissent.
But Myanmar is expected to send a senior bureaucrat to the Vientiane talks. A Southeast Asian diplomat who will attend the meeting told AFP on condition of anonymity that the military’s readiness to reengage with ASEAN diplomatically was a “sign of the junta’s position”.
The crisis has divided ASEAN, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines calling for tougher action against the junta. Thailand, on the other hand, has held its own bilateral talks with the junta leaders as well as with detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The AMM will produce at least six outcome documents, including a chairman statement, a joint communiqué and several joint statements with ASEAN’s partners, including China.