September 16, 2024
NEW DELHI – The resignation of two Maldivian ministers who had disparaged Prime Minister Narendra Modi marks an important moment in the fragile Maldives-India relationship. This development, coming just ahead of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s planned visit to New Delhi, signals a potentially strategic shift in the way Maldives might navigate its complex ties with India.
Mr Muizzu, known for his India out campaign, had been critical of the heavy Indian presence in the Maldives, specifically the stationing of Indian defence personnel. His political rise was marked by a commitment to reversing Maldives’ traditionally close ties with India, pivoting instead toward strengthening relationships with China. His demands to replace Indian military personnel with civilians earlier this year were met by New Delhi, although the move was seen as a strain on what had once been a close partnership. However, the resignations of the two junior ministers ~ who had made inflammatory comments about Mr Modi on social media ~ may indicate a desire to temper the overtly anti-India rhetoric that has characterised Mr Muizzu’s administration.
The Maldivian President, despite his pro-China stance, appears to be making efforts to manage relations with India, likely recognising that an outright antagonistic approach could be counterproductive, especially given India’s economic and strategic importance in the region. Mr Muizzu’s planned visit to New Delhi is a critical diplomatic step. It will be his first official visit to India since taking office, signalling that despite previous tensions, he values maintaining open lines of communication with New Delhi. The Maldives, located strategically in the Indian Ocean, is an important player in the broader regional dynamics, where India and China are vying for influence.
India, with its historical and cultural ties to the Maldives, has always played a significant role in the country’s political and economic landscape. Meanwhile, China’s growing presence in the region, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, has presented a new geopolitical challenge for India. For Mr Muizzu, balancing these competing influences is vital. While his initial actions suggested a clear pivot toward China, the upcoming visit to New Delhi hints at a more pragmatic approach. The resignations of the ministers, who had drawn ire from Indian officials and the public alike, may be seen as an olive branch to smooth over diplomatic friction ahead of the talks.
Given the Maldives’ dependence on tourism ~ much of which came from India until tensions flared ~ Mr Muizzu cannot afford to let strained relations hinder the economic benefits of close ties with its larger neighbour. Ultimately, Mr Muizzu’s upcoming visit to India presents an opportunity for recalibration. By engaging with New Delhi while maintaining his ties with Beijing, Mr. Muizzu may be seeking to position the Maldives as a neutral, independent actor in the increasingly polarised Indo-Pacific region. The resignations of the ministers who had publicly insulted Mr Modi are perhaps just the first step in a broader strategy of navigating these complex geopolitical waters.