October 24, 2024
SEOUL – North Korea’s dispatch of personnel to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — even if their military involvement is limited or indirect — could put Russian President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang’s debt, experts said. The development may also set the stage for reciprocal support from Moscow for Kim Jong-un’s aggressive ambitions, especially if North Korean casualties occur in the Ukraine war.
Whether North Korea has dispatched troops to Russia remains a hotly debated issue, with intelligence authorities from Ukraine and South Korea claiming that large numbers of North Korean troops are being trained in Russia to support its war effort in Ukraine.
NATO and the United States confirmed for the first time on Wednesday evidence of North Korean troops in Russia but withheld judgment on whether they were intended for the battlefield.
Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that if North Korean troops are actually participating in the war, “This is, at a minimum, symbolically an important physical manifestation” of the security guarantee that Moscow and Pyongyang have resurrected from the Cold War.
“And if North Korean troops actually die in conflict on behalf of Russia, that creates a lot of ‘you owe me’ from the North Koreans to Putin,” Cha said Tuesday during a discussion hosted by the Washington-based CSIS.
During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty, which commits both countries to “provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal without delay” if either party enters a state of war due to a military invasion by one or more countries.
Kim Du-yeon, an adjunct senior fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said North Korea might see an opportunity to extract concessions from Russia in return for supporting its war efforts.
“North Korea might say, ‘You owe me, Russia, if some of our men are killed in action, or even if they are just technicians and engineers,'” she said.
North Korea’s leverage over Russia could lead to support for the North’s military ambitions, particularly against South Korea.
“If the price paid back by Russia is support to DPRK military belligerence and actions towards South Korea, then we’ve got a real problem. So I think thinking about this in the more strategic implications can help motivate and shape what we do in response,” Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser to the Korea Chair at CSIS, said.
DPRK stands for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Cha noted that Kim Jong-un is well aware of Putin’s need for munitions, missiles and troops, and could “drive a very hard bargain and ask for a top-of-the-line military technology that would really create problems.”
Symbolic, strategic implications
Seiler further pointed out that a country’s deployment of troops in support of another country’s military action carries “the strategic, the symbolic, the solidarity dimension” in addition to “a very practical dimension,” whether it involves logistical support, missile unit specialists, or regular combat forces — the types of contributions they can make to the conflict.
“A country may send a token force that may have very limited actual participation in conflict and still send a strong message of the value they place in the relationship and the mutual commitment they have, both in the letter of something like the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” Seiler, former national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, said.
Seiler also highlighted another symbolic dimension of North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine war, suggesting it signals alignment with “revisionist powers”– including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
“These are powers that are out to overturn the international order, solidify their autocratic rule at home, and also are willing to use force in the pursuit of strategic objectives. North Korea clearly wants to be seen as aligned in this grouping of countries, and they’re providing this type of support to Russia would have a significant symbolic nature.”
The experts, at the same time, concurred that if North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine war is confirmed, it would make China uncomfortable.
Kim Du-yeon said Beijing is concerned that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea could escalate tensions, leading to increased US involvement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Seiler pointed out that China may feel its limited leverage over North Korea is being eroded by Moscow’s support for Pyongyang as North Korea deepens its ties with Russia.
“So, going forward, I think the fact that the North Koreans are there, possibly in Russia, eventually, maybe even in Ukraine, is not as problematic as the support that Russia could provide, which would embolden North Korea to act in ways that are otherwise unpredictable and detrimental to China’s interests,” Seiler said.
Nuclear saber-rattling
While attention remained focused on the potential troop dispatch, Kim Jong-un inspected strategic missile bases — the first such disclosure — North Korean state media reported Wednesday. The media also released photos of Kim examining the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile and the Hwasong-16Na, also known as the Hwasong-16B, which the country claims to be a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.
During the inspection, Kim called on the country to “definitely bolster its war deterrence and take a thorough and strict counteraction posture of the nuclear forces,” citing the “ever-increasing threat” posed by US strategic nuclear means to North Korea’s security environment and the “long-term threats.” Kim also stressed the need to “make all bases fully ready to keep thorough counteraction posture capable of promptly dealing a strategic counterblow to the enemies at any time in different circumstances.”
Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Kim Jong-un’s public inspection of strategic missile bases was intended as a clear signal of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities in response to potential military pressure from the US, NATO and South Korea, should North Korea deploy troops to Ukraine.
Hong noted that the visit aligns with a press statement made on Tuesday by Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister, who condemned both South Korea and Ukraine for “military provocations” against nuclear-weapon states.
“North Korea appears concerned about possible military pressure from the US, NATO and the broader international community becoming a reality when North Korea’s deployment becomes confirmed,” Hong said. “The disclosure is also aimed at emphasizing North Korea’s deterrence capabilities — that is, its retaliatory capabilities against the US.”
Hong explained that the North’s publicization of its strategic missile bases also serves as a “reminder that the North Korea-Russia military alliance is fundamentally an alliance between nuclear-weapon states.”
North Korea is not recognized as a nuclear-weapon state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, however.