October 14, 2024
SINGAPORE – Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reassured Asean of continuity in Japan’s foreign policy on his diplomatic debut just nine days after assuming office.
Speaking at a press conference on Oct 11 at the end of his visit to Vientiane, Laos, to attend Asean-related summits, he again stressed that Tokyo will remain the grouping’s “most trusted partner”.
This reassurance came after the 67-year-old military wonk ruffled diplomatic feathers while campaigning for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership with his pitch to create an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) military alliance.
The proposal for a collective security framework in Asia, which was not well received in the region, was not raised even once during the two days of summitry.
An “Asian Nato”, say analysts, would be divisive and seen as drawing fault lines with China, which would go against the spirit of Asean neutrality.
However, the proposal is not quite dead yet, with Mr Ishiba and his ministers having described it as “one for the future” and the Prime Minister saying in response to a question at the Oct 11 news conference that the proposal warranted debate and a consensus within the LDP.
Experts have said the Constitution must first be revised so that Japan could fully exercise collective self-defence, although LDP policy chief Itsunori Onodera said on Oct 10 that Mr Ishiba has instructed lawmakers to “deepen debate on how we can strengthen regional security networks”.
Even if the “Asian Nato” idea is premature, it suggests that “Ishiba understands the importance of building regional coalitions against China, and may push the envelope of Japan’s military engagements with partners even further than (his predecessor Fumio) Kishida”, said Professor Heng Yee Kuang of The University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy.
Associate Professor Kei Koga at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University saw Mr Ishiba’s priority at his first foreign engagement as one of “reassurance that Japan would not disrupt the current strategic environment”.
But given that Mr Ishiba has not entirely slammed the door on the idea, Prof Koga said Mr Ishiba “does not consider ‘Asian Nato’ as a short-term objective”.
Prof Heng said Mr Ishiba’s message of continuity at the summit was clear: “He adopted basically a holding pattern that redeploys well-worn terms such as ‘heart-to-heart’ relations with Asean, while emphasising newer issues like green and digital transformation, which nobody can really quibble with.”
Ms Asuka Tatebayashi, a senior analyst in Mizuho Bank’s global strategic advisory department, said it was highly symbolic for Mr Ishiba to visit South-east Asia as his first diplomatic destination.
While this was by virtue of the summit calendar, Mr Ishiba could well have skipped the summit. The visit was unusual insofar as it comes in the midst of election season in Japan, with the Diet having been dissolved on Oct 9 for a snap poll on Oct 27.
But Mr Ishiba, who has previously said that Japan’s presence at the Asean meetings was necessary to prevent China from dominating and steering discussions, told reporters on Oct 11 that it was “a precious opportunity for me to properly communicate Japan’s position” while pledging to support the growth of Asean connectivity.
He follows in the footsteps of his predecessors Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga, who both made Vietnam their first stops after taking office.
Noting the compatibility of Japan’s and Asean’s respective Indo-Pacific visions in upholding a rules-based regional architecture, Ms Tatebayashi said Japan can act as a ballast amid growing uncertainty over the engagement of its security ally, the United States, in the region, given its upcoming presidential election in November.
“South-east Asia does not see the US as a very economically engaged partner in Asean,” she said, adding that the strength of Japan’s economic engagements with Asean – which Mr Ishiba has promised to grow – by extension, will be of value to the US in an era when geopolitical and economic interests are converging.
Dr Satoru Mori of Keio University said Japan plays a crucial role in reminding the US of Asean’s importance.
“There’s a tendency sometimes for the US to see regional states as a pawn in great power competition. Japan has and will continue to remind Washington of the need to engage Asean as equal partners,” he said.
This message of equal partnership was stressed by Mr Ishiba to Asean leaders through a flurry of meetings on Oct 10 and Oct 11.
“Japan wishes to shape and safeguard the future together with Asean, with which it shares principles such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law, and is a growth centre of the world,” he told Asean leaders during the Japan-Asean meeting on Oct 10.
Mr Ishiba also met bilaterally with leaders, including South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, with whom he promised to continue the “shuttle diplomacy” that began under Mr Kishida.
In talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Mr Ishiba sought to break the ice by highlighting how his political mentor – former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka – had in 1972 overseen the normalisation of Sino-Japanese ties and spoken about “building relations for tomorrow”.
As Tokyo lays the groundwork for a possible summit between Mr Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of multilateral forums in November, the Japanese leader said he hopes to foster a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests”.
Mr Li, for his part, said he hopes Japan could meet China halfway, according to Chinese state media.
Mr Ishiba also brought up challenges in the two neighbours’ testy ties, such as China’s violation of Japanese territorial airspace in August and anti-Japanese sentiment likely contributing to the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen in September.
These should be overcome through “multi-layered communications at all levels”, Mr Ishiba said, although Prof Heng noted that the two sides’ military hotline was not used during the recent military incursions.