November 28, 2024
JAKARTA – Quick counts indicate that regional head candidates backed by the governing coalition are on course to dominate most key battleground provinces in the country’s first nationwide simultaneous regional elections, solidifying support for President Prabowo Subianto to execute his programs over the next five years.
Wednesday’s nationwide local elections have been seen as a repeat of the power play between the pro-Prabowo Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) that characterized February’s presidential race. The PDI-P currently is the only de-facto opposition party.
Quick count results from various pollsters have suggested that KIM candidates, some of whom are linked with former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, appear on course to win the elections in several strategic regions like Central Java, East Java and North Sumatra.
The KIM-backed candidate pair of Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Dardak in the East Java governor race have a decisive lead in the nation’s most populous province, garnering between 57.2 and 58.7 percent of the total vote from sampled polling stations, according to quick count tallies from two pollsters.
Their two opponents, PDI-P-backed ticket Tri Rismaharini-Zahrul Azhar Asumta and Luluk Nur Hamidah-Lukmanul Khakim on a National Awakening Party (PKB) ticket, trail in second and third with 32.7-34.6 percent and 8.1-8.4 percent, respectively.
In Central Java, Ahmad Luthfi, a former police general and Jokowi ally who is running on a KIM ticket with running mate Taj Yasin Maimoen appear on course to win the election by a wide margin against the PDI-P ticket of former military commander Andika Perkasa and Hendrar Prihadi.
Quick counts from four pollsters showed Ahmad-Taj Yasin secured 58.3-59.3 percent and Andika-Hendrar 40.6-41.7 percent.
This came after weeks of tight competition between the pairs in various surveys, and after President Prabowo and his predecessor Jokowi, who had been keen on taking over the PDI-P stronghold of Central Java, recently endorsed the Ahmad-Taj Yasin ticket.
Central Java has been seen as a symbolic showdown between the military and police forces and, like Jakarta, also serves as a proxy battleground between Jokowi and his former party the PDI-P, after their bitter split ahead of the February presidential election.
Read also: Preliminary results show Luthfi defeating Andika in Central Java
A Prabowo and Jokowi-backed candidate pair is also on course to win in North Sumatra, the largest province outside Java and which also serves as one of the key pillars for Jokowi’s political dynasty.
Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution and his running mate Surya enjoy a decisive lead over former governor Edy Rahmayadi and running mate Hasan Basri Sagala running on the PDI-P ticket, with the former commanding about 62.7 percent and the latter about 37.2 percent.
Two-round Jakarta election?
In a blow to the governing coalition, however, the Prabowo- and Jokowi-favored candidate pair is losing ground and trailing behind the opposition pick in the pivotal race for governor and deputy governor of Jakarta, widely seen as a springboard for national leadership.
Quick counts show PDI-P-backed candidate pair Pramono Anung-Rano Karno leading with 49.4-50.1 percent, followed by the KIM candidate pair, former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil-Suswono with 39.2-40 percent.
The Pramono-Rano pair strengthened their momentum after they found an unlikely ally with the backing of former governor Anies Baswedan, an unsuccessful presidential candidate and government critic, who remains popular among Jakarta voters.
Despite Pramono’s lead, pollsters are divided over whether the candidate pair will come out as the clear winners in a single round, as some quick counts show they failed to win a majority of votes.
Candidates must secure over 50 percent of the vote to win in a single-round election. If no candidate passes the 50 percent mark, Jakarta will hold another round of election, this time, it will only have the two candidate pairs with the most votes.
Addressing the inconclusive quick count results, Pramono said he remained optimistic that he would win the race in a single round, claiming that internal quick counts from his camp have suggested they won over 50 percent.
“If there is no outside intervention, we believe that we will win the election in a single round,” Pramono told Metro TV, pointing to the fact that only two out of eight pollsters suggested they had failed to achieve the 50 percent mark.
Decisive victory
Observers have described the overall result of Wednesday’s elections as a “decisive victory” for the governing coalition, as having allies leading most strategic regions will help Prabowo ensure his policies and programs are implemented effectively on the ground.
“KIM’s victory suggests that its consolidation effort from the national level down to the regions has run effectively,” political analyst Wasisto Raharjo Jati of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) told The Jakarta Post.
The likely triumph of Jokowi-backed candidates in the key battleground provinces, such as Central Java, also indicates that the former president, who is not a member of any political party, still holds an influential sway in Indonesian politics despite no longer holding power, Wasisto said.
Analysts have said having Jokowi’s allies leading strategic regions, however, may pose a risk for Prabowo, as it will help the former president consolidate the support base for his eldest son, Vice President Gibran Rakabimung Raka, against the incumbent in the next presidential election in 2029.
“Not all KIM candidates are Gerindra [or Prabowo] loyalists, so [Prabowo] has to think hard about [how he consolidates support for his] reelection bid,” analyst Arya Fernandes of the Jakarta-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said.
Read also: Prabowo casts vote in local elections, calls for nationwide reconciliation
Meanwhile, losing Central Java may indicate waning influence and relevance on the part of the PDI-P, especially after it lost the province in the last presidential election, Arya said.
“This is a huge blow for the PDI-P. The party will have to engage in self-reflection to stay relevant, especially in how it strategizes to prepare for future elections,” Arya said.
Upon casting his votes for Bogor regent and West Java governor earlier on Wednesday morning, Prabowo struck a united tone.
“Every election has winners and losers. Those who win must lead for everyone, and those who lose must collaborate. The most important thing is serving and working for the people,” Prabowo said after casting his votes.