May 12, 2023
JAKARTA – A recent survey of Jakarta residents has found former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan still in the lead over Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo in the presidential race, but by a lower margin. Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto, whose electability has increased since July 2022 remains in distant third.
The Indikator Politik Indonesia survey was conducted from Feb. 24 to March 3 involving 820 respondents from Jakarta with a 3.5 percent margin of error. In a three-horse race simulation, 42.4 percent of respondents opted for Anies, who has the backing of the NasDem Party, the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
Meanwhile, 33.2 percent plumped for Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who is also backed by the United Development Party (PPP), while only 16.6 percent went for Defense Minister Prabowo of the Gerindra Party. These findings contrasted that of a recent national survey by Indikator that pegged Ganjar in the lead with 34 percent, with Prabowo trailing closely behind, while Anies was further behind in third.
Anies’ electability in the Jakarta survey decreased by 3.5 percentage points from 45.9 percent in July of last year, when he was still the Jakarta governor, while Ganjar’s was down by 1.1 percentage points and Prabowo’s rose by 4.7 percentage points.
With Gerindra itself making a decent showing in the legislative survey with 15.8 percent electability behind the first-placed PDI-P with 23.9 percent, Gerindra lawmaker from the Jakarta electoral district, Habiburokhman, admitted to being baffled by Prabowo’s relatively low share of the vote.
“Based on our experience, Gerindra is perceived as synonymous with Prabowo, and we legislative candidates from Gerindra have always relied on Prabowo’s name to win elections,” Habiburokhman said on Thursday. “Especially when we consider that East Jakarta has a lot of military constituents who represent Prabowo’s traditional supporters.”
Indikator executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said this may be because of a voting discrepancy between the presidential and legislative elections among Gerindra supporters, a characteristic Burhanuddin described as split-ticket voting.
Independent voters
“Prabowo’s voters in Jakarta have started to shift their support for Anies,” Burhanuddin said. The pollster found that only 43.2 percent of Gerindra supporters said they would vote for Prabowo, with 27 percent stating their support for Anies while a further 16 percent went for Ganjar.
Support for Anies among his coalition is considerably stronger, with 78.4 percent of PKS supporters, 61.7 percent of NasDem supporters and 54.5 of Democratic Party supporters all saying they would be voting for Anies. Meanwhile, 66.7 percent of PDI-P supporters pledged their support for Ganjar despite the survey taking place before the party’s official nomination in April.
With Jakarta voters having a higher education level compared with the national average, with Habiburokhman even describing the city as a battleground for discerning voters, Burhanuddin said that Gerindra must look inward. “As voters become more independent, Gerindra must convince its supporters to vote for Prabowo, before trying to woo other parties’ supporters.”
Compared with the presidential race, which has mostly settled around the three candidates, the vice-presidential race remains fluid. “The prospective list of vice-presidential candidates has yet to narrow […] and among the elites there’s still no announcement on who the running mates are going to be,” he said.
West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno and Democratic Party chair Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono remain the top-three candidates. But the Jakarta-focused poll also saw some new names, including NasDem politician Ahmad Sahroni, who is rumored to be aiming for the Jakarta governor position.
While the focus is mostly on the 2024 presidential and legislative elections scheduled for February 2024, the survey also touched on the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election, set to be held nine months later in November 2024 during the simultaneous regional elections.
Anies, who according to an Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) poll in October ended his time as Jakarta governor with an 80 percent approval rating, was initially the favorite pick. Since Anies announced his intention to run for president, however, Anies’ predecessor as governor, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, has risen to the top of the gubernatorial race.