November 7, 2024
JAKARTA – It wasn’t even a close race, and the only surprise was how easy and convincing former president Donald Trump’s victory was.
As this paper went to press on Wednesday, Trump appeared to have comfortably clinched a second term in the White House.
Those who claimed the Trump brand would sink the Republican Party were proven wrong, as this time the 78-year-old millionaire won the popular vote, with more than 70 million ballots cast for him versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 64 million as of Wednesday night.
To add insult to the Democrats’ injury, it appeared likely that Republicans had wrestled the United States Senate from Democratic control, putting the Republican Party on solid footing to dominate all three branches of government in the US, an advantage only a handful of US presidents have enjoyed since the end of World War II.
It seems that all the legal action against Trump and the Democratic Party’s efforts to portray him as a racist, if not a fascist, mattered little to American voters, who turned out in record numbers for the controversial politician.
And it seems that the enthusiasm, especially among women and minority groups that welcomed Harris three months ago after she was crowned the Democratic nominee, did not translate into enough momentum to bring Vice President Harris over the finish line.
It could have been Gaza or her campaign’s focus on reproductive rights that complicated her efforts to win, but it appears that inflation, the cost-of-living crisis and immigration weighed heavily on the minds of voters as well.
The Democratic Party establishment will have some serious soul-searching to do in the wake of such a massive defeat before they can mount a comeback in 2029.
This morning, the world woke up to a new reality. The ground has shifted in the US, and in three months, there will be a change of guard in Washington whose repercussions will be felt around the world.
If the first Trump presidency is any indication, the world will again be on a rollercoaster with the erratic politician at the helm.
On the policy front, there will be much that Gaza, Tehran, Kyiv and Beijing can expect from the change of leadership.
Trump may be a staunch supporter of Israel, but who knows, he might make good on his promise to Michigan voters to end the war in Gaza.
On the European front, there is now much trepidation about the possibility of Trump deciding to withdraw US support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion. It remains to be seen if the new NATO chief and “Trump whisperer” Mark Rutte can convince the presumptive US president to do otherwise.
For China and other Asian countries, Trump’s return could bring economic troubles, especially from his threat to impose tariffs of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports and of 10 to 20 percent on all other foreign goods.
That is certainly bad news for export-driven economies in the region, including Indonesia.
Outgoing President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has already complicated Indonesia’s efforts to capitalize on the global electric vehicle boom, and a more protectionist Trump could punish Indonesia further.
And as Chinese manufacturers shift their operations to countries in Southeast Asia to circumvent US tariffs, it is likely that Trump could also go after them.
President Prabowo Subianto has set a target of 8 percent annual economic growth, and Trump could well drag this ambitious goal farther from reach.
Prabowo will have an opportunity to make Indonesia’s case to Trump in person when the two meet next week. He would do well to take advantage of it.